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[转帖] [Follow] Why is the "warmest year" so cold?National Climate Center response

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发表于2024-02-26 23:25:04 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式
    


    What are the characteristics of the climate in the past half a month?What will happen to the later winter climate?It is said that this year is the warmest year. Why is it so cold recently?Take a look.

    1

    Climate characteristics since winter

    In early December this year, it was warm and significant, and the cooling in the middle of the month was large.Since December (as of the 18th), precipitation is significantly more precipitation in most areas in the north.During this period, the national average temperature was -1.3 ° C, which was 0.9 ° C higher than the same period of the same year. The temperature in most areas across the country was mainly high.

    The "roller coaster" type temperature of the "roller coaster" type with continuous warm -up and rapid cooling in the later period has fluctuated.On December 1-13, the average temperature nationwide was higher than the same period of the same year. It was the highest in history. The temperature in Yunnan and Ningxia was the highest in history.butStarting from the 14th, due to the large -scale cold wave weather, the temperature in most areas of the country plummeted, and the maximum cooling of some national meteorological stations broke through the historical extreme value.


    Since the winter, the average temperature of the country has undergone a "roller coaster" change

    Since the winter, the national precipitation has been nearly 50 % more than the same year.The distribution of precipitation is largely different. The central and eastern regions are roughly in the south of the north. Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia are the most in history. Beijing and Henan are the second most, and Shaanxi is the third.


    On December 14-17, there was a large-scale cold tide process in my country. This process has the characteristics of a wide range of influencing, long duration, complex phase, large precipitation, and high overlapping in the landing area and the preliminary process.The maximum cooling process of 95 national sites reached or exceeded 20 ° C. The largest cooling process in Datong, Shanxi, reached 26.3 ° C.The maximum cooling of the process exceeded the area of about 5.967 million square kilometers, accounting for about 62.2%of the country's land area, of which about 1.625 million square kilometers with a cooling extent exceeded 14 ° C.Fujian Liancheng (16.6 ° C), Jiangxi Anyuan (16.5 ° C), Sichuan Emei Mountain (16.5 ° C), Guangxi Guiping (15 ° C), including 10 national meteorological stations, have exceeded the historical extreme value.Affected by the cold wave, the cumulative precipitation in the southeast of North China, most of East China, northern and central China, and central parts generally exceeds 10 mm. Among them, more than 25 mm in central Jiangsu, central Anhui, central Hubei and other places, and more than 50 mm.It has caused a certain adverse effect on transportation, facility agriculture, urban operations, and people's production and life.Although the large -scale snowfall in the north has brought a lot of inconvenience to production and life, it has also replaced different kinds of landscapes in various places.

    2

    Later winter climate trend prediction

    It is estimated that the winter (January to February 2024), the intensity of the winter wind in East Asia is generally weak. Except for the temperature in the northeast of Inner Mongolia, the northern Heilongjiang, the majority of Tibet, and the south of Qinghai, the temperature is lower than the same period.Most of my country's temperatures are close to perennial year, but the cold and warm ups and downs are obvious, or they have experienced the "roller coaster" again.Later in the middle of the country, there are more precipitation in the central and eastern part of my country, and the precipitation of the rest of the country is close to the same period to less.Cold air activities are relatively active, and the process of staged cooling and snowfall may occur again in the northern region. Staged low -temperature rain and snow frozen weather may occur in the south of the river and southwestern region.During the intermittent period of the air, the conditions of the atmospheric diffusion have deteriorated. The Beijing -Tianjin -Hebei and the surrounding, the Fenwei Plain, and the Yangtze River Delta may occur.

    3

    Say the warmest year

    Why is the cold wave so cold?

    The national average temperature this fall is the highest in history in the same period, and the prediction results also show that the temperature in most areas this winter is close to the same period or high.What do you think of this cold wave recently? What is the reason?

    first,We talked about the warm one year or a certain month. It was not determined through a single weather incident, but was determined by the average temperature average of the whole period to be significantly higher or lower than the history of history.For example, from November 3-7 this fall, a cold wave weather in most parts of my country appeared. During this period of time, the temperature was reduced, which was much lower than that of history. The highest, so it is "the warmest autumn".


    Didn't it mean that the global warming is warmer?Why is the cold air in autumn and winter so strong?

    There is a huge temperature difference between the equator and the polar ground. This difference prompts a lap of strong western wind around the periphery of the extreme circle, surrounded by the polar ground, which is called the rapids of the west wind.The west wind is like a "fence", restricting the cold air on the polar.The stable pole vortex is limited by the powerful western wind rapid flow. In the context of global warming, the temperature increase at the Arctic region is 2-3 times that of the world.The temperature increases in the Arctic region. The temperature difference between the low and low latitudes is weakened. It is difficult to maintain a powerful western wind rapid flow.The temperature from the North Pole is far lower than the low and medium latitudes of our lives. The cold waves that appear many times make us feel "cold".

    According to historical data statistics, in the context of El Nino, my country's winter temperature is generally warm, but the stage cold air activity is more frequent, which means that cold and cold ups and downs are obvious.

    but,The intensity of the cold air process is not only affected by El Nino, but also has a lot to do with the split of the Arctic vortex and the disturbance of the mid -high latitudes.Since mid -December this year, the Arctic vortex spin is divided into dual centers, above Greenland and Siberia, respectively.With the severe distortion of the west wind belt over the Eurasia, Siberia's high pressure was abnormally enhanced, and most of my country turned from southwind to north wind from the beginning of the early stage, and the cold air went south, resulting in a sudden decline in temperature.

    On the other hand, the Philippine abnormal anti -cyclone inspired by El Niho will transport tropical water vapor to the mainland of my country. Therefore, the cold wave process from mid -high latitudes cooperates with the conditions of rich water vapor from low latitudes, which leads to a large -scale snowfall process in the central and eastern part of my country.In addition, the increase in the sun in the snow caused by snow also makes the later return temperature slower.


    China is a sensitive area and a significant area of climate change. Although the temperature increase is higher than the global average, the intensity of extreme cold waves has not weakened, and strong cold air or cold tide has increased.For example: From February 14-17, 2020, the national cold wave process affects my country. In most areas, 8-12 ° C cools down, and the local area cools above 18 ° C. In the weather, the maximum snowy depth of 7 stations in Jilin Province exceeded 40 cm; heavy rains or heavy rain appeared in Guangdong, Guangxi and other places, and hail, wind, lightning, and frozen roads appeared in many provinces.From January 20-25, 2016, strong cold air affects most of our country from north to south; the national process of cooling exceeds 6 ° C with an area of 7.86 million square kilometers, 529 counties and cities have temperatures exceeding 12 ° C, 16 counties and cities exceed 18 ° C;The continuous cooling of 23 stations exceeded the historical pole value, and the minimum temperature of 67 counties and cities broke through the historical pole value; on the 25th, the first snowfall since the founding of the People's Republic of China appeared on the 25th.


    Data: Xinhuanet

    Edit: Bi Yangjing

    Responsible editor: Yan Wenbin

    *Reprinted, please indicate from "Shanghai Changning"


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