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[转帖] What is the warmest year?What will happen to the later winter climate?National Climate Center response

发表于2024-02-26 22:12:26 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式

    "Why is breaking news websiteit so cold recently?

    Didn't you say that this year is the warmest year?"


    Recently, as the temperatures in various places have fallen sharply

    NoYoung netizenQuestion.

    What are the characteristics of the climate in the past half a month?

    What will happen to the later winter climate?

    The National Climate Center forecasts the post -winter climate trend,

    Talk about the underlying logic of global warming and my country's cold incident.


    Climate characteristics since winter

    In early December this year, it was warm and significant, and the cooling in the middle of the month was large.Since December (as of the 18th), precipitation is significantly more precipitation in most areas in the north.During this period, the national average temperature was -1.3 ° C, which was 0.9 ° C higher than the same period of the same year. The temperature in most areas across the country was mainly high.

    △ Since the winter, the whole country has a warm and warm nationwide (left), and most of the precipitation in the north is significantly too much (right)

    The "roller coaster" type temperature of the "roller coaster" type with continuous warm -up and rapid cooling in the later period has fluctuated.On December 1-13, the average temperature nationwide was higher than the same period of the same year. It was the highest in history. The temperature in Yunnan and Ningxia was the highest in history.However, from the 14th, due to the large -scale cold wave weather, the temperature dropped sharply in most areas across the country, and the maximum temperature of some national meteorological stations broke through the historical extreme value.

    △ Since the winter, the average temperature of the country has experienced the "roller coaster" change

    Since the winter, the national precipitation has been nearly 50 % more than the same year.The distribution of precipitation is largely different. The central and eastern regions are roughly in the north, and the south areas. Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia are the most in history. Beijing and Henan are more than 2nd, and Shaanxi is more than 3rd.

    On December 14-17, there was a large-scale cold tide process in my country. This process has the characteristics of a wide range of influencing, long duration, complex phase, large precipitation, and high overlapping in the landing area and the preliminary process.The maximum cooling process of 95 national sites reached or exceeded 20 ° C. The largest cooling process in Datong, Shanxi, reached 26.3 ° C.The maximum cooling of the process exceeded the area of about 5.967 million square kilometers, accounting for about 62.2%of the country's land area, of which about 1.625 million square kilometers with a cooling extent exceeded 14 ° C.Fujian Liancheng (16.6 ° C), Jiangxi Anyuan (16.5 ° C), Sichuan Emei Mountain (16.5 ° C), Guangxi Guiping (15 ° C), including 10 national meteorological stations, have exceeded the historical extreme value.

    △ On December 14-17, most of the country's cooling down (left) The temperature is far lower than the same period of history (right, "distance and flat" is the difference between the actual data and the same period of history)

    Affected by the cold wave, the cumulative precipitation in the southeast of North China, most of East China, northern and central China, and central parts generally exceeds 10 mm. Among them, more than 25 mm in central Jiangsu, central Anhui, central Hubei and other places, and more than 50 mm.It has caused a certain adverse effect on transportation, facility agriculture, urban operations, and people's production and life.Although the large -scale snowfall in the north has brought a lot of inconvenience to production and life, it has also replaced different kinds of landscapes in various places.

    Later winter climate trend prediction

    It is estimated that the winter (January to February 2024), East Asian winter wind intensity is generally weak. Except for the temperature in the northeast of Inner Mongolia, northern Heilongjiang, most of Tibet, southern Qinghai, the temperature is lower than the same period of the year., But the cold and warm ups and downs are obvious, or you have experienced the temperature "roller coaster" again.Later in the middle of the country, there are more precipitation in the central and eastern part of my country, and the precipitation of the rest of the country is close to the same period to less.

    Cold air activities are relatively active, and the process of staged cooling and snowfall may occur again in the northern region. Staged low -temperature rain and snow frozen weather may occur in the south of the river and southwestern region.During the intermittent period of the air, the conditions of the atmospheric diffusion have deteriorated. The Beijing -Tianjin -Hebei and the surrounding, the Fenwei Plain, and the Yangtze River Delta may occur.

    What is the warmest year?

    Why is the cold wave so cold?

    First of all, we talked about the warm one year or a certain month. It was not determined by a single weather incident, but was determined by comparing the temperature average of the whole period to be significantly higher or lower than the history of history.

    For example, from November 3-7 this fall, a cold wave weather in most parts of my country appeared. During this period of time, the temperature was reduced, which was much lower than that of history. The highest, so it is "the warmest autumn".

    Didn't it mean that the global warming is warmer?Why is the cold air in autumn and winter so strong?

    There is a huge temperature difference between the equator and the polar ground. This difference prompts a lap of strong western wind around the periphery of the extreme circle, surrounded by the polar ground, which is called the rapids of the west wind.The west wind is like a "fence", restricting the cold air on the polar.

    △ Cited from China Meteorological News

    As shown in the figure above, the stable pole vortex is limited by the strong western wind rapids. In the context of global warming, the temperature increase in the Arctic region is 2-3 times that of the world.The temperature increases in the Arctic region. The temperature difference between the low and low latitudes is weakened. It is difficult to maintain a powerful western wind rapid flow.The cold air from the Arctic is far lower than the low and medium latitudes of our lives. As a result, the story line is like the following figure. The cold waves that appear many times make us feel "cold".

    According to historical data statistics, in the context of El Nino, my country's winter temperature is generally warm, but the stage cold air activity is more frequent, which means that cold and cold ups and downs are obvious.

    However, the intensity of the cold air process is not only affected by El Nino, but also has a lot to do with the division of the Arctic vortex and the disturbance of the mid -high latitude west.Since mid -December this year, the Arctic vortex spin is divided into dual centers, above Greenland and Siberia, respectively.With the severe distortion of the west wind belt over the Eurasia, Siberia's high pressure was abnormally enhanced, and most of my country turned from southwind to north wind from the beginning of the early stage, and the cold air went south, resulting in a sudden decline in temperature.

    On the other hand, the Philippine abnormal anti -cyclone inspired by El Niho will transport tropical water vapor to the mainland of my country. Therefore, the cold wave process from mid -high latitudes cooperates with the conditions of rich water vapor from low latitudes, which leads to a large -scale snowfall process in the central and eastern part of my country.In addition, the increase in the sun in the snow caused by snow also makes the later return temperature slower.

    China is a sensitive area and a significant area of climate change. Although the temperature increase is higher than the global average, the intensity of extreme cold waves has not weakened, and strong cold air or cold tide has increased.For example: From February 14-17, 2020, the national cold wave process affects my country. In most areas, 8-12 ° C cools down, and the local area cools above 18 ° C. In the weather, the maximum snowy depth of 7 stations in Jilin Province exceeded 40 cm; heavy rains or heavy rain appeared in Guangdong, Guangxi and other places, and hail, wind, lightning, and frozen roads appeared in many provinces.

    Produced: Minsheng Weekly (ID: msweekly) New Media Department

    Material source: National Climate Center WeChat public account

    Edit: Jiang Yuhan

    Editor in charge: Liu Ye

    Editor: Cui Jingfang

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