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[转帖] Is it a dark moment or a year of turning?See Li Bei and Hong Yan's latest views on 24 years

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发表于2024-03-02 09:20:09 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式
    

    Last weekend,hot topic website Feng Yunjun was invited to participate in the carnival event organized by Snowball, which was a bit of investing in the taste of the Spring Festival Gala.I thought that the market was cold, and there should be no one. I didn't expect the scene to be so lively.Judging from the experience of Fengyunjun for many years with the manager and fund manager, the coffee of the guests at the scene is still possible.Li Bei and Hong Yan are here. The communication with the abbot is very goods. After listening to dry goods, you can listen to Hu Xijin and Li Daxiao on the spot.

    Of course, as the Fengyunjun who focuses on private equity research, the most concerned about the private equity fund manager who is present is what he said. After all, everyone is running for investment opportunities.After listening to the whole, it is quite inspiring. What do you think about the current market and next year?Is Xiaoshuang overestimated now?Where is the investment logic and opportunities of the Hong Kong stock market?Feng Yunjun summarizes it for everyone:

    1. What happened to A shares, can it be done?

    When talking about the current market, "buying" and "opportunities" seem to be the core point of view of guests.The abbot mentioned that this was the third time he had a very strong desire to buy stocks since he entered the capital market. The first time was at the end of 2005, early 2006, the second time at the end of 2008, and early 2009.He mentioned that in the long run, "oscillation up and value return" is the fundamental law of the capital market.

    Li Bei also mentioned "this is the second opportunity in my life". She feels that the current policy is "everything is ready, only owe Dongfeng", and is still reserving ammunition. Once the policy is in place, it will have a greater impact on the macro and will have a greater impact on macro., There may be an excessive effect.She also mentioned that at the end of the year, the institution was transferred, the position was clear, and the redemption fund played a very important role in the market. At the beginning of next year, everyone will start a new round of asset allocation. For foreign capital, the A -share market will have a globalIt is very cost -effective, and the return on equity assets is more considerable, so there may be some domestic funds that may choose to enter the stock, such as insurance companies.

    Hong Yan believes that it is basically impossible to choose a perfect choice in A shares, but the current downlink space of the market is much smaller than the upward space, and the risk is much smaller than the expected income.Now it is obvious that at the bottom of the cycle, there is a trend of building the bottom.At the same time, he shared a very good sign, that is, the RMB exchange rate has begun to repair sharply, which reflects capital flow to a certain extent, and more people are buying RMB.

    In general, everyone generally believes that this is the darkness before dawn. The current market is optimistic about the market, but there must be reasonable expectations.

    2. Is the small plate too overestimated?

    Since the beginning of this year, despite the promotion of the Special Market at the beginning of the year, the value of the large market has been briefed for a while, but the overall performance of small disk style is far ahead, and many investors have begun to worry about whether the small plate is overvalued risk.Regarding this topic, the Carnival Private Equity closed -door meeting was very thoroughly communicated with quantum compound Wang Yan and Sheng Guanda He Chun:

    Quantum compound interest believes that there is a possibility of callback in the short term, but in the long run, this pair of small disks may be positive or without impact. The opportunity of fluctuations and excess will partially offset the decline.There are funds concerned, the individual stocks are relatively active, the fluctuations in various industries and individual stocks are differentiated, and the valuation is also low. It is a very good condition.

    Sheng Guanda He Chun believes that the current market value level of small -cap stocks and financial valuations of the market have not been overestimated, and the current policy has not deliberately suppressed the small -cap stocks. ThereforeThe possibility of plunge is very low.Choosing to invest in small-cap stocks, one is to do research in the past, and found that the extended time (15-20) dimension, the performance of small-cap stocks is better than large-cap stocks.Quantitative methods are easier to obtain excess.At the same time, from the past many years of historical data, when the market is normal and the market is good, the income performance of small -cap stocks is usually better.

    Quantum compound interest and He Chun are both quantitative stock selection strategies that focus on small and micro -invested. If they really switch in the future, Sheng Guanda is protected by options hedging, and it will also reserve a low -wave dividend strategy to prevent extreme risks.Quantum compound interest will be prepared for the risk control of futures hedging or liquidation according to the monitoring data.

    In summary, that is, there may be a certain amount of recovery in the short term, but in the long run, the small disk has long -term investment value in terms of the aspects of component stock attributes, investor composition or capital flow, and policy.

    But as Yang Xinbin, the manager of Changxue all -weather fund, said that with the central bank's attention to credit, including the further sinking of the interest rate center, will it bring some repairs of the value of the large market and the growth of the large market.What you can do is not to bet on a single style.

    3. How to "turn stones" in Hong Kong stocks

    Regarding this round table discussion of Hong Kong stocks, Feng Yunjun personally believes that it is one of the best contents of the carnival.Dan Shu, Hua'an Hexin, and Bi Sheng explained the investment value of Hong Kong stocks from different perspectives, and their own way of making money.

    First of all, why are there always a lot of people even if the Hong Kong stock market fluctuates so much, and so many people choose to invest in Hong Kong stocks?Danshu Tie Voucher Chen Juntao believes that Hong Kong stocks are cheap+positive return (dividend and repurchase, etc.) are the main reasons; Hua'an Hexin Yuan Wei's investment income in Hong Kong stocks comes from assets with high dividends in central enterprises. He believes that these central enterprises are not only cheap cheapAt that time, the fundamentals were also at the low point of the business cycle, suitable for reverse investment; Bi Sheng Yang Kangning believed that Hong Kong stocks were markets with very low pricing validity, so the Hong Kong stock market was actually more able to obtain excess returns.

    In fact, everyone invested in Hong Kong stocks with reverse thinking. Regarding what is reverse, the three people's views also have a big difference: Wang Corning believes that reverse is not a falling buy, and it is sold.When you are greedy, when you are greedy, you are afraid. The most important thing is to know when it should be greedy and when to be afraid. This requires a certain degree of professionalism. Investors must do their homework;The pursuit that is not fully reflected is reverse.Just like Munger said, think about everything in everything, you will find that a lot of conclusions are not self -defeating; Chen Juntao's expression is even more life -like. He believes that reverse is a common sense of life. Buy more if you cheap, and you can buy a little more.Cheap and expensive are where we have to work hard.

    Finally, when talking about the investment opportunities of Hong Kong stocks, Yang Corning believes that the outflow of foreign investment with a big head has ended, and now it is close to the ending stage, and the market has reached a very extreme stage.Opportunities; Yuan Wei recognizes what Li Bei said before. We have the biggest advantage of the biggest advantage of risk -free interest rates. It is believed that the entire cycle -related varieties will have relatively large investment opportunities.

    In fact, I have been shouted at the bottom of the market for several years, and everyone may have been numb, but this kind of activity allows investors to gather together and "carnival" together.It can also let everyone temporarily leave from the coldness of the account, and feel some warmth and excitement.

    Finally, if you want to get more text reviews of 2023 Snowball Carnival Investment Big Coffee, or private equity packages such as product evaluation, manager introduction, road show review, etc., welcome to pay attention to Feng Yunjun who focuses on private equity research.Not only do you want the product information you want, but also freely provide your private equity companion and long -term service ~


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