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[转帖] Is the market optimistic about the expectations of next year's interest rate cuts?Many Federal Reserve officials speak

发表于2024-03-04 02:56:32 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式

    Federal Reserve Xinhua News Agency information map

    Following the suspension of interest rate hikes in December in December,breaking news website many Federal Reserve officials have successively disclosed their voice, and there are differences in opinions.

    On December 20, local time, Patrick Harker Patrick Harker, the Fed of Philadelphia, said he opposed the Federal Reserve's further interest rate hikes."I always think that let us keep the interest rate unchanged temporarily. Look at the results, we don't need to raise interest rates anymore."

    Looking forward to the future, Harker said that it is important to start the interest rate, but it doesn't have to start too fast, which takes some time.

    Harker is one of the Federal Federal Public Marketing Committee (FOMC) voting members this year, but foreign media reports that Hak may no longer serve as FOMC voting committee because he will face compulsory retirement in 2025.

    On December 18, local time, San Francisco Fed Chairman Mary Dala said that in view of the improvement of inflation this year, the Fed began to consider that interest rate cuts in 2024 were appropriate. 

    Dali said that her expectations for interest rates and inflation are very close to the estimated estimates of 19 Federal Reserve officials in the interest rate conference last week.As the inflation decreases faster than expected, many Federal Reserve officials are expected to cut interest rates at least three times next year.

    Last week, the discussion resolution issued by the Federal Reserve showed that the target range of the federal fund interest rate remained unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%, and it remained at the highest point in 22 years, in line with market expectations.The dot -line diagram shows that the median interest rate of 4.6%next year is expected that the Fed may cut interest rates three times next year.

    Despite Harker and Dali successive "pigeons", many Federal Reserve officials still stated that they should not be too optimistic about the prospects of policy relaxation under the situation where the economic prospects are still uncertain.

    On December 19, local time, Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Loretta Metter said the market expected to cut interest rates for interest rate cuts.

    Mest emphasized that traders may be too optimistic about interest rate cuts next year, and it is too early to discuss the relaxation of monetary policy.The next stage is not when to cut interest rates, but about how long the monetary policy needs to be maintained to ensure that inflation can sustainable and timely fall to 2%of the goal.

    On December 19th local time, Thomas Barkin, the US Risan Fed, President of the United States, said that the Federal Reserve made good progress in slowing down inflation, but it is too early to start planning the Fed's first interest rate cut.He pointed out that the inflation rate is still higher than the Fed's 2%goal and is more stubborn than expected.

    On December 18, local time, Chicago Fed Chairman Austan Goolsbee said the Fed did not promise to quickly cut interest rates in advance.The market is expected to rise in the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cut, which is inconsistent with the Fed's way of operating.

    On December 15, local time, the New York Fed Chairman John C. Williams said that interest rate cuts are not currently a topic of the Fed discussion."We are not talking about interest rate cuts now. We are very concerned about the issues in front of us. As President Powell said, whether our monetary policy has adopted a sufficient restricted position to ensure that inflation falls to 2%."

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