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[转帖] West Question | Liu Yunyun: Why are there extreme low temperatures in the background of global warming?

发表于2024-02-26 21:43:58 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式

      China News Agency,热门新闻 Beijing, December 21st. Question: Why is there extreme low temperatures in the context of global warming?

      ——Liu Yunyun, deputy director of the National Climate Center Climate Forecast Office

      China News Agency reporter Chen Su

      Affected by the global warming and the El Nino incident, the World Meteorological Organization predicts that 2023 will be the "warmest year", and the National Climate Center will also predict in November. This winter, China has a higher probability of warmth.However, recently, the temperature in many places in China has continued to be low, and the minimum temperature in many places has exceeded the historical pole value in December.At the same time, North America and Europe have encountered Blizzard and extreme low temperature weather this winter. On December 2, Munich refreshed the largest single-day snowfall record in December.It was 14 ° C.

      In the context of global warming, why is the northern hemisphere winter so cold this year?What is the trend of weather in the later winter?According to Liu Yunyun, deputy director of the China News Agency "question".

      The interview is currently recorded as follows:

      China News Agency reporter: Since this winter, what is China's weather trend?

      Liu Yunyun:Since this winter, China has experienced the "roller coaster" type temperature of the "roller coaster" that has continued to be warm in the early stage and the later cooling down.The average temperature nationwide from December 1st to 13th is higher than that of the same period of the same year. It is the highest in history. The temperature in Yunnan and Ningxia is the highest in history.However, from the 14th, due to the large -scale cold wave weather, the temperature dropped sharply in most areas across the country, and the maximum temperature of some national meteorological stations broke through the historical extreme value.

    On December 19, 2023, Beijing Daxing Airport after snow.Photo by Sunzi Fa

      From December 14th to 17th, there is a large -scale cold wave in China. This process has the characteristics of a wide range of influencing scope, long duration, complex phase, large precipitation, and high overlapping of the landing area and the preliminary process.The maximum cooling process of 95 national sites reached or exceeded 20 ° C. The largest cooling process in Datong, Shanxi, reached 26.3 ° C.The maximum cooling of the process exceeded the area of about 5.967 million square kilometers, accounting for about 62.2%of the country's land area, of which about 1.625 million square kilometers with a cooling extent exceeded 14 ° C.Fujian Liancheng (16.6 ° C), Jiangxi Anyuan (16.5 ° C), Sichuan Emeishan (16.5 ° C), Guangxi Guiping (15 ° C) and other 10 national meteorological stations have exceeded the historical extreme value.Affected by the cold wave, the cumulative precipitation in the southeast of North China, most of East China, northern and central China, and central parts generally exceeds 10 mm. Among them, more than 25 mm in central Jiangsu, central Anhui, central Hubei and other places, and more than 50 mm.It has caused a certain adverse effect on transportation, facility agriculture, urban operations, and people's production and life.

      Since December (as of the 18th), the precipitation of most of the north is significantly more than that.Since the winter, the national precipitation has been nearly 50 % more than the same year.The distribution of precipitation is largely different. The central and eastern regions are roughly in the south of the north. Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia are the most in history. Beijing and Henan are the second most, and Shaanxi is the third.

    On December 14, 2023, sanitation workers melted snow and snow on the streets of Ji County, Henan Province.Wang Zirui Photo

      China News Agency: The State Climate Center statistics previously showed that the average temperature in China this fall is the highest in history in the same period. The prediction results also show that the temperature in most areas this winter is close to the same period of the year or higher.But the weather has been extremely cold recently. Is this the opposite of prediction?

      Liu Yunyun:Talking about the warmth of a certain year or a certain month, it is not determined by a single weather incident, but is determined by comparing the average temperature of the whole period to be significantly higher or lower than the history of history.For example, from November 3rd to 7th this fall, a cold wave weather occurred in most parts of China. The temperature in the cliff in this period was a lot lower than the history of history, but if the average temperature of the entire autumn was found to be found in 1961, it was 1961.The highest, so it is "the warmest autumn".

    On November 6, 2023, the Qianhuang Lake in Zijin Mountain, Nanjing, Jiangsu was strong.泱 波 波

      Reporter of China News Agency: Under the influence of global warming, why is the cold air this winter so strong?Why did the North Hemisphere encounter Blizzard and extreme low temperature weather in many places?

      Liu Yunyun:There is a huge temperature difference between the equator and the polar ground. This difference prompts a lap of strong western wind around the periphery of the extreme circle, surrounded by the polar ground, which is called the rapids of the west wind.The west wind is like a "fence", restricting the cold air on the polar.The stable pole vortex is limited by the strong west wind rapids. In the context of global warming, the temperature increase at the Arctic region is 2 to 3 times the world.The temperature increases in the Arctic region. The temperature difference between the low and low latitudes is weakened. It is difficult to maintain a powerful western wind rapid flow.The cold air from the Arctic is far lower than that of humans, low and medium latitudes, so the cold waves that appear many times make the public feel "very cold".

      According to historical data statistical analysis, China's winter temperature is generally warm in the context of El Nino, but phased cold air activities are relatively frequent, which means that cold and cold ups and downs are obvious.

      In addition, the intensity of the cold air process is not only affected by El Nino, but also has a lot to do with the split of the Arctic vortex and the disturbance of the mid -high latitude west.Since mid -December this year, the Arctic vortex spin is divided into dual centers, above Greenland and Siberia, respectively.With the fierce distortion of the west wind belt over the Eurasia, Siberia's high pressure was abnormally enhanced, and most of China turned from southern wind to north wind from the prevalent of the early stage, and the cold air went south, causing the temperature to fall sharply.

      On the other hand, the abnormal anti -cyclone in the Philippines stimulated by El Niho will strengthen the tropical water vapor to transport to China. Therefore, the cold wave process from mid -to -high latitudes combined with the abundant water vapor conditions from low latitudes, resulting in a large -scale snowfall process in central and eastern China.The increase in the sunny sky caused by snow in the area also made the later temperature temperature slower.

    On December 20, 2023, after the early snow, Dongyang City, Dongyang City, Zhejiang Province.Hu Yanghui Photo

      China News Agency reporter: How does global warming affect Chinese winter weather?

      Liu Yunyun:China is a sensitive area and a significant area of climate change. Although the temperature increase is higher than the global average, the intensity of extreme cold waves has not weakened, and strong cold air or cold tide has increased.

      For example, from February 14th to 17th, 2020, the national cold tide process affects China. Most of the regions have a cooling of 8 ° C to 12 ° C, the local cooling is over 18 ° C or above.Rain) In the weather, the largest snowy depth of 7 stations in Jilin Province exceeded 40 cm, and heavy rain or heavy rain appeared in Guangdong, Guangxi and other places. In many provinces, hail, wind, lightning, and frozen roads appeared.From January 20-25, 2016, strong cold air affects most of China from north to south. The national process of cooling exceeds 6 ° C with an area of 7.86 million square kilometers.The continuous cooling of 23 stations exceeded the historical pole value. The minimum temperature of 67 counties and cities broke through the historical pole value. On the 25th, the first snowfall since the founding of New China appeared in Guangzhou.

    On January 25, 2016, snowflakes were rare in Guangzhou, and citizens took pictures.Zhong Xin Photo

      China News Agency reporter: Looking forward to this winter, what is the climate trend?

      Liu Yunyun:It is estimated that the winter (January to February 2024), East Asian winter wind intensity is generally weak. Except for the temperature in the northeast of Inner Mongolia, northern Heilongjiang, most of Tibet, southern Qinghai, the temperature is lower than the same period of the year., But the cold and warm ups and downs are obvious, or you have experienced the temperature "roller coaster" again.Later in the winter, the central and eastern China has a lot of precipitation, and the precipitation from the rest of the country is close to the same period to less.Cold air activities are relatively active, and the process of staged cooling and snowfall may occur again in the northern region. Staged low -temperature rain and snow frozen weather may occur in the south of the river and southwestern region.During the intermittent period of the air, the conditions of the atmospheric diffusion have deteriorated. The Beijing -Tianjin -Hebei and the surrounding, the Fenwei Plain, and the Yangtze River Delta may occur.

    On December 12, 2023, the guardrail of the Dalian Coastal Coastal Coast Liaoning was covered with ice.Liu Debin Photo

      China News Agency: How should we deal with weather events such as climate change and increasingly frequent extreme cold tide?

      Liu Yunyun:Slowing and adaptation is the two strategies to deal with climate change, which complement each other.Slowing is a long period of adjustment through economic and natural ecosystems such as energy, industry, and transportation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.Adaptation is to reduce climate change that has occurred and expected to occur. By adjusting the natural and human systems, the adverse effects of climate change on social economic development and ecosystemEssenceIn June 2022, China issued the "National Adaptation to Climate Change Strategy 2035", becoming an important document for China to build a "global model" to create a "global model" to adapt to climate change policy action. China will continue to deploy early early warning and adapt to climate change.(over)

      Introduction to the interviewee:

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