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[转帖] The climate conference ended, the results and differences of those on the market

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发表于2024-02-26 22:34:21 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式
    

      Wen | Lu Yuning

      Edit | Su Jianxun

      Unsurprisingly,独家资讯 the COP28 ended again.

      On December 13, local time, after another long negotiation, COP28 officially ended after "overtime" one day.

      At the closing ceremony, the chairman of the COP28 conference, Surdan Jobier, sounded the small mallet reached by the representative agreement and passed the final resolution"UAE Consensus"EssenceIn this consensus, the party eventually reached an agreement on a number of issues such as the Paris Agreement for the first time, slowing, adapting, adaptation, funds, losses and damage, and fair transformation, and also opened a new page for the global climate governance process.Essence

      In the hottest year of the earth, the urgency of climate change cannot be said."Accelerating Action" and "International Cooperation" are hot words that appear at high frequencies at the COP28 conference.But when the 198 parties gathered together and found a consensus in countless positions, it was not easy.

      From the perspective of the results of the conference, COP28 is a relatively pragmatic conference: the global inventory is completed, the first countries have agreed to the transformation of fossil energy, climate funds commitment will be finalized successively, and so on.

      But differences also exist, such as different carbon reduction technology routes, the implementation of climate funds, climate policy and controversy of trade barriers, etc., which also leaves the problem of reminions of the later climate conference.

      "In our world full of split and fragmented, COP28 can show that multilateralism is still the biggest hope for us to deal with global challenges," said UN Secretary -General Gutres.

      

      

    At the closing ceremony of the COP28, through the "Consensus of the UAE".Picture source: UNFCCC

      

      The first global inventory after the Paris Agreement was the biggest highlight of this conference and was also regarded as the most critical results.It can be regarded as a "transcript" of global climate operation, and countries will use it to formulate a stronger climate action plan by 2025.

      The global inventory recognizes the current progress of global climate action: In the scene where all countries' independent contributions (NDCS) can be fully implemented, at the end of this century, the global average temperature rise can be controlled within 2.1-2.8 ° C. Compared with the range of 2.1-2.8 ° C, comparedThe Paris Agreement has greatly improved through the 4 ° C temperature rise predicted by the previous prediction.

      At the same time, economies that exceed 87%of the global GDP have proposed the "net zero" goal, but the strategic goals need to be fully implemented.

      It is also clearly stated in the inventory that there is still a large gap in the process of responding to climate change, and it deviates from the right track in achieving the goal of the Paris Agreement.

      By 2030, global greenhouse gas emissions will achieve 43%of emission reduction based on 2019 to achieve the global temperature control target of 1.5 ° C.

      Therefore, the parties still need to accelerate the pace of climate actions, and a set of methodologies will also be given in the inventory, including by 2030, the renewable energy capacity will be doubled globally, and the energy efficiency will be doubled.The amount of coal power and gradually eliminating inefficient fossil energy (see the figure below).

      

      

    Picture source: global inventory text.36 carbon translation and finishing

      

      In the global inventory case, fossil fuel is undoubtedly one of the most watched content, and it is also the biggest issue for all parties.The reason why COP28 is called the "big year" of climate negotiation is to explore the fate of fossil fuel.

      At the closing ceremony, the chairman of the conference knocked on the little mallet in his hand, and also sentenced the fate of the fossil fuel.

      In the previous versions, how to express how the fossil fuel is a bit like the "text game" competition, which is the focus of controversial representatives of the contractor, and it has also become the main reason for this conference.

      In the final text, representatives of various countries have finally reached an agreement on the formulation of "transformation and leaving fossil fuel".

      The full text of this sentence is: "In a fair, orderly, and fair way, transform from fossil fuel in the energy system, accelerate in a critical decade to achieve net zero emissions in 2050."

      Although there is no "Phase Down" or "Phase Out" in the final resolution, insteadTransitioning Away"The word expressions.

      However, this is the first time that has mentioned fossil fuels since 28 years of international climate negotiations, and the first time it has reached a global consensus on the exit of fossil energy, it has taken a historic step.

      This may also make the chairman of the conference Surdin Jubil's breath.Because he is also a dual position of COP28 chairman and the CEO of the UAE National Petroleum Corporation, this has caused the outside world's questioning of his own position.But from the results, at least he has promoted a historic breakthrough, allowing the fossil fuel era to move towards the "end of the end."

      Fossil fuel is the consensus of the culprit of global temperature rise, but the development stage, resource endowment, political will, and energy structure of various countries are not the same.The tug -of -war of fossil fuel is particularly complicated.

      According to the "World Energy Balance Table" issued by the International Energy Agency (IEA), as of 2019, coal provided 22%of power generation in high -income countries, while low -income countries were 54%.This means that the pressure of various countries in terms of energy transformation and path selection has different pressures.

      "Although we have not opened a new page in the era of fossil fuel this time in Dubai, this result is the beginning of the end.Simon Steel, the Secretary of the UN Climate Change Executive Secretary, said in the closing words.

      

      

    Source: Visual China

      

      Coping climate crisis cannot be separated from "money", funds have become the basis for accelerating climate expansion operations, and provide assistance to the most vulnerable country in the climate crisis.From the perspective of climate financing results, this COP28 raised more than $ 85 billion in funds for climate operations.

      Among them, the "loss and damage" funds that the parties paid attention to each other on the first day of the conference reached an agreement, and it has raised nearly $ 800 million.

      The results of COP28 in climate financing mainly include: the UAE establishes a $ 30 billion climate fund; the Green Climate Fund has increased by 3.5 billion US dollars; the newly added pension for the most underdeveloped countries and climate change special funds has more than $ 150 million, and so on.

      However, at present, although the fund plan is taken out, how to implement it next needs to be valued.

      Taking losses and damage funds as an example, for example, compared with the huge amount of funds facing developing countries, the actual funds still cannot meet the gap.In particular, the scale of this fund does not make clear stipulation, which means that the amount of funds depends on the generosity of rich countries and their source of funds.

      Some experts have expressed doubts about the "moisture" of climate funds. Although the total amount of funds is increasing, the types and benefits of funds are still yet to be verified. At present, there are no third -party institutions on the reduction of emission reduction and additional climate adaptation of funds.Evaluate.

      In fact, as early as the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference in 2009, developed countries promised to provide a climate financing of $ 100 billion each year by 2020 to support developing countries to carry out climate governance.But the time has passed so long, and the promise has not yet been fulfilled.

      In addition, the UAE was listed as a "developing country" by the United Nations system, and there was no obligation to provide traditional forms of climate financing, but their large donations in this conference also caused a lot of discussions.In developed countries, it may be required to invest in some relatively wealthy development, which is not conducive to the fair and effective implementation of the Paris Agreement.

      Overall, this time the COP28 talks "money" is of course a positive and important thing. The summary is:It's better than expected, but still less than actual needsEssence

      In the future, how to make the "money" in the basket truly implement, bridge the huge capital gap, and make a more scientific and accurate assessment of the benefits of funds is a more important direction.

      

      Just as the situation is encountered every time the COP is over, even if there is a package of results thrown out, there are still differences.

      Some people say that COP28 is a successful conference, because "a new page has been opened for fossil fuel"; but some people say that this wording is still not resolute enough,It is believed that the neutral expression of fossil fuel "transformation and separation" is still "weak", which is better to "eliminate" more powerful.

      "'Transformation and disconnecting fossil fuel' at best is light tea. This is like promising your doctor that after being diagnosed with diabetes, you will not eat donuts."Professor Michaelman told the media.

      Small island countries, which are susceptible to climate, are the biggest supporters of eliminating fossil fuels.At the closing ceremony of the conference, the chief negotiator from the small island country alliance, Anne Rasmussen, pointed out that when the small island country alliance is still coordinating the response to the agreement, the conference agreement has been absent in the meeting.It was finalized during the period.

      Annie Lasmuson's speech was obviously strong dissatisfaction with the agreement, and said that "this process has disappointed us."

      

      

    During the COP28 period, protests calling for the elimination of fossil fuels to continue.Source: Visual China

      There are also some differences in the expression of text details.For example, the final text needs to gradually decrease the "unable coal burning" by 2050, which can be understood as "coal -electrical equipment without carbon capture device", but it has not been more clear about it.explain.

      Some industry experts said that this lack of clarity may be extended to dependence on fossil fuels again under the guise of "increasing increasing".

      We see that this technology has won a lot of controversy in COP28. Please see the previous observation reports of 36 carbon:

      36 COP28 | CCS and CCUS are resisted. Is the "carbon catcher" technology scam?

      In addition, the international carbon market progress (ie, Article 6 of the Paris Agreement), which has attracted much attention from the outside world, has not reached an agreement in this conference.Each party failed to adopt the latest proposals of Article 6.2 and 6.4. The design of the cooperation performance mechanism between the country did not reach a new part of all parties. Discussions on the details of the international carbon market will be postponed to the next climate change conference.Essence

      The annual "Climate Action Test" will continue to be carried out. The COP28 closing ceremony will also be officially approved: Azerbaijan will take over to host COP29, and Brazil will become the host country of COP30.

      The next two climate conferences are still very important: at the COP29 conference, the parties to each party must formulate new climate financing goals.On the COP30, the parties to each party need to propose a new country's independent contribution, which must involve the entire economic scope, all greenhouse gases, and fully meet the requirements of the 1.5 ° C temperature control target.


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