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[转帖] The exchange market watching tide 2024, January 3,

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发表于2024-02-26 21:29:26 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式
    

    Bank of China Guangdong Branch Wang Gang

    Currency: dollars/yen

    On Tuesday (January 2),First-line information website due to the sharp rise in US debt yields, the US dollar index rose 0.799%, the largest single -day percentage increase since October.The yen fell 0.75%against the US dollar to 141.98.The US dollar index fell 2%in 2023, ending the rise in the past two years, as investors expect the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates sharply in the annual annual.Although the Federal Reserve hinted last month that the US dollar was under pressure to reduce interest rates in 2024, some institutional analysis stated that "the market has gradually realized that the US economy is still strong" and may remain strong this year.Therefore, whether the Fed can really enter the interest rate cuts like market expectations, it still needs to be observed further.Investors will see a number of economic data this week, including European inflation data, vacancy in the United States, and non -agricultural employment data. These data will affect the market's expectations of the Fed and the European Central Bank's monetary policy trends.The Federal Reserve's Federal Public Marketing Committee (FOMC) will announce the December meeting record on Wednesday, which will allow people to further solve the viewer's view of the possibility of interest rate cuts.If all aspects show that the Fed does not need to cut interest rates early, then the US dollar will inevitably rebound from the low position of the previous year.On the daily diagram, the technical indicators are smooth and the moving average MACD signal line appears dead fork. The relatively weak index RSI also shows signs of steering, indicating that the support of the US dollar/yen at 140 levels is strong.The initial resistance above is around 143. If you wear it up, it will further test the resistance of 145.Recently, the risk of rebound in the US dollar is mainly.

    Currency: Australian dollar/USD

    On Tuesday (January 2), affected by the sharp rebound of the US dollar, the Australian dollar/USD fell 0.78%, closing at 0.6761.In Australia, data showed that Australia's house prices rebounded 8%last year, but the rate hikes and the deterioration of burdens slowed down to a certain extent the growth rate of the last few months of last year.The market still bet on the Australian Central Bank has completed the tightening of monetary policy, and the next step is to cut interest rates.If the difference between the difference is gradually losing, the Australian dollar may be difficult to get the support of rising.In terms of technical graphics, the Australian dollar/US dollar upside down. The 5 -day mobile moving average has passed down the 10 -day mobile moving average. The support level is 0.6722 on the 21st moving average. After falling, it will be confirmed that the rise will end.EssenceIf the following falls below 0.6720, the target may point to the 38.2%return of the rally in October/December 0.6641. Only if it exceeds 0.6810, it may reappear the short -term height trend.


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