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[转帖] China Merchants Securities: Domestic enterprises should focus on grasping the endowment of the overall industries and the new consumer industry

发表于2024-03-04 03:16:55 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式

    China Merchants Securities issued a report saying that under normal circumstances,Exclusive information website China ’s exports will invest in the company's NO.1 Company. If the subdivision category is replaced by overseas high -end brands, and the profit is rich, it can appropriately relax the scope of investment targets."In the early stages of the industry, the industry matured at NO.1", the latter's return is more stable. The former has a highlight moment, but it is necessary to beware that the market began to emphasize the retracement during performance.

    Consumption has a wide range of spaces in the world, and different regions create differentiated outbound path: European and American upgrades, relegation in Southeast Asia, and popularization of Middle East and Africa.The global consumer market is huge, providing broad demand space for domestic consumer companies to seek new external growth points.

    The mature consumer market in Europe and the United States is developed. It is the main area of consumption in China. Domestic products have created price competitiveness with the advantages of domestic supply chain and artificial cost advantages, and established low -cost domestic products to calm down the local high -end brands.The labor cost index of my country's unit is only 68, which is far lower than the 120 of the United States and 123 in Germany. The cost advantage is obvious.According to PayPal's research data, 72%of consumers will conduct cross -border shopping due to competitive prices.Taking the spring breeze power as an example, the price of its 1000cc all -terrain four -wheel wheels is only 59%of the competition models at the same level;

    The market economy in Southeast Asia has developed rapidly, e -commerce continues to penetrate, broaden the space for domestic goods to go to the sea, and based on the export of consumer cultural exports with similarity with my country to create a way out of the sea to dig out the sea -to -sea premium.As of 2021, the penetration rate of retail e -commerce in Southeast Asian countries is basically less than 5%. In 2021, the global e -commerce growth rate is TOP10 Middle East and South Asian countries accounted for 50%. Cross -border e -commerce growth space is broad.Enterprises believe that product cost -effectiveness is the competitive advantage of Chinese companies in Southeast Asia.For example, the retail brand Miniso has entered the Southeast Asian market with "light luxury" to meet local folk customs to strengthen its localization;

    Under the background of the economic growth and population of the Middle East and Africa region, the consumer market growth has a wide range of space. At the same time, the lack of commodity categories, the brand cognition and channel establishment are not perfect, and the blank market has created opportunities for domestic goods to go out to sea.On the whole, my country's leading manufacturing scale, perfect infrastructure, and strong production and supply chain build a solid industrial barriers based on the world's leading manufacturing scale. Traditional foreign trade+cross -border e -commerce has steadily developed and pioneered consumption to grow sea growth space, with broad market prospects.For example, mobile digital enterprises have ranked first in the African smartphone market as of 2022.

    With reference to Japan, domestic enterprises should focus on grasping the out -of -sea endowments of the advantageous industries and new consumer industries, and to conduct multinational recovery and localization adaptation of their own advantages with product power and cultural output as the core.Insufficient domestic demand after the population of the Japanese, and the company's willingness to go to sea is strong.From the perspective of categories, the Japanese outbound categories gradually transitioned from basic categories such as textiles and steel to technical dense electronics, automobiles and mechanical categories. In the early 20th century, they gradually succeeded in the retail service industry.From the perspective of the way, Japan's early export method adopted the export method. With the intensification of trade restrictions from Europe and the United States, more steering investment methods bypass trade barriers.Japanese companies have the following advantages or experience: 1) Japan's national character is relatively rigorous, and it is improving service to services, so that Japanese companies can go to sea to hold high and fight high; 2) focus on localization. Taking 7-11 as an example, before entering Beijing, before entering BeijingIt has completely investigated the dietary style of local residents and launched the "live cooking" service; 3) maximize the re -engraving of its own advantages, including the establishment of standardization and research and development of globalization.4) Form the product with a leading advantage, take Uniqlo as an example, cooperate with high -quality raw material companies Dongli, and the product continues to innovate.The advantages of domestic enterprises are different from Japan. Unlike Japan's misses and silence in new industries and the silence of new consumption, domestic enterprises can focus on grasping the advantages of supply chain and give full play to the endowment of the Internet and new energy industries and new consumer industries.And pay attention to the multinational recovery and localization adaptation of their own advantages.

    Due to the characteristics and maturity of the industry, there is a certain stage of consumption in different industries in a country. We divide various industries into three categories: in the early stages of development, mid -development and maturity industry.1) In the early stage of development: The offline retail catering service industry is still in the early stage of the cultural circle, and the penetration rate is low at the early stage of overseas. With the continuous advancement of the localization strategy and the rapid expansion of overseas stores, the process of going out of the sea continues to advance.2) Development mid -term: The industry that goes out of the sea for products and cultural output through the brand is currently in the middle stage of consumption, including its own brand out of sea, online retail platforms, and overseas brand acquisitions.Retail platforms and so on.In this article, agricultural acquisition of overseas companies is a case.3) Mature period: The earliest batch of domestic companies using domestic abundant production capacity and strong supply chain for foundry production capacity to go to sea. At present, the relatively mature overseas industry chain has been accumulated.The industry also puts the foundry capacity of the foundry abroad to reduce costs and increase efficiency.In this article, a case of processed and exports of health products.

    Create China Consumption Council Investment Cube: From the following three dimensions, we analyze the model of Chinese companies' consumption to go out to sea and form investment Rubik's cube:1) Regional: EU upgrade, downgrade in Southeast Asia and the popularity of Middle East and Africa.2) Oceanic mode: It can be divided into platforms to go to sea. Brands go out to sea (including vertical collection brands & durable products single product brand & service brands) and supply chain to sea.3) Positioning: It can be divided into high -end equalization, middle -class cost performance, low -cost strategy.

    Investment Strategy:"Import replacement investment, China exportsNO.1 "EssenceUnder normal circumstances, China ’s exports to invest in the industry, the No.1 Company of the industry. If it is replaced by the overseas high -end brands, and the profit is rich, it can appropriately relax the scope of the investment target."In the early stages of the industry, the industry matured at NO.1", the latter's return is more stable. The former has a highlight moment, but it is necessary to beware that the market began to emphasize the retracement during performance.The summary of the development trend of the industry in various industries and the recommendations of related targets are as follows:

    Business:1) Social service:Grasp the opportunities of the Southeast Asian market brands to go to sea.In terms of OTA, the domestic OTA competition pattern is stable. With the steady increase in the penetration rate of the Southeast Asian Internet, the online tourism market is expected to continue to return.In the short term, we are optimistic about the recovery of the international tourism market. In the middle and long term, the online tourism penetration rate in Southeast Asia still has a wide range of room for improvement. It is expected to further open market space for OTA companies to go to sea.In terms of catering, the improvement of international cultural identity helped Chinese food to go to sea. In 2021, the size of the international food market exceeded 260 billion US dollars, and the market share continued to increase.At present, domestic catering brands are mainly facing three major difficulties in supply chain, standardization, and cultural collaboration.Leading brands such as Tea International are expected to take the lead in achieving the sea;2)retail:Cross -border e -commerce high prosperity, platforms and brands go to sea, compose a second growth curve.The Internet platform goes to sea to seek new increments, and Pinduoduo TEMU leads the full hosted wave at an extreme cost -effective positioning, and expands the growth of growth at high growth; Alibaba's international digital business business has grown rapidly, profitability improves the long -term development space;Pin multi -model pioneering shop+localization research and development, rapid growth according to local conditions.

    medicine:The quality of domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies has continued to improve, and it gradually has global competitiveness. Behind it, it reflects the endowment of Chinese pharmaceutical companies' craftsmanship and Chinese speed.Overseas market spaces are broad. It is recommended to focus on companies that have gone to sea or have expected to go to sea: Kelun Botai Biological-B, Kangfang Biology, Baiji Shenzhou, Hero Yellow Medicine, Kim Siri Biotechnology, Green Leaf Pharmaceutical, etc.

    agriculture:The Brazilian corn seed industry has expanded, and the international layout of Longping has been accelerated.Over the past few years, the prospects of Brazilian corn exports benefited from the high -quality prosperity of food prices, and the production enthusiasm of Brazilian farmers has risen; Brazilian corn planting area has continued to grow, driving the continuous expansion of the Brazilian corn seed industry.Long Ping Hi -Tech has participated in Brazil's Longping since 2017 and paid in November 2023.At present, Brazil's Longping's operations continue to improve, and the market share has stabilized in the top three in Brazil. It is expected that in the future, with the expansion of Brazil's corn seed market, the growth momentum of profit growth is expected to continue.Focus on Recommended Longping Hi -Tech.

    Light work spinning clothing:1) LightmanBesides(1) The production capacity is in China, using China's high -quality low -cost supply chain to go to sea: to the global supply chain of European technology, and the overseas warehouse layout to optimize the company's supply chain cost and efficiency. The main source of revenue growth in the futureAfter copying the successful experience of the German market to other regions, the market share in other regions increased; in the Saiwei era, the warehousing layout of the performers was established through the flexible production of the production link to establish a solid brand operation foundation.Under the brand incubation methodology, the steady growth of head brands contributes profit, and the brands of the waist tail contribute high growth and growth.(2) The production capacity is transferred to overseas, and goes to the sea with the appropriate cost performance and difference of the product: ingenious home relying on higher products to achieve shareholding, focus on its own brand upgrades, launch a new high -end series product Motoliving and build Moto Gallery, to expand the brand's influence of the brand's influence of the brand.Force, realize the rapid occupation of the American smart home market; under the major trend of Southeast Asia's electrification, Yadi Holdings takes the lead in layout the Vietnamese market, channels and products are rapidly localized.Copy the successful experience of Vietnam to more Southeast Asian countries and achieve success to the seaItems2) Textile clothing:Since 2005, domestic manufacturing leaders have continuously promoted the layout of Southeast Asian production capacity and strengthened cost advantages.In recent years, the sports shoes and clothing brands will transfer orders to regions of low labor costs in Southeast Asia.At present, the global brand inventory of the global shoes and clothing is de -ending.At the same time, the head brand in 2024 is expected to launch or warm up new technologies to open a new technology cycle.We believe that high -quality manufacturers with global production capacity expansion capabilities, lean management capabilities, and strong anti -ability capabilities can take the lead and get more market share.Focus on the leadership of sports shoe foundry leaders Huali Group, sports and leisure clothing leaders Shenzhou International, auxiliary materials leading Weixing, and nylon leader Taihua New Materials.

    Home appliance:Repeated Japan's Global and Panasonic's globalization layout in the 1980s and 1990s.The leading enterprise represented by Hisense Home Appliances has focused on deep cultivation of overseas in the past ten years, and realized the localization layout of the three -in -one R & D, production, and marketing.Represented by and TCL Electronics, focusing on creating an industrial chain vertical integration ability, and then realizing the transformation/curve overtaking in the display field, breaking the long -lasting industry bottleneck in China, and formally launched the first Samsung Samsung to the Samsung.; 3) Small home appliances and tools, focusing on recommending independent brands of the flooring robot to go to sea benchmark stone technology/Cobos, ODM transformation independent brand superstar technology/Quanfeng Holdings.

    Functional food foundry, Xianle Health Global Supply Chain Empowerment.The consumption atmosphere of overseas health products is mature, the C -end competition pattern is scattered, and the brand enterprise depends on foundry.Chinese foundry companies have certain competitiveness in terms of cost and efficiency.Key target: Xianle Health.The company currently has local factories in Germany and the United States. Through Chinese engineers bonus and transportation experience in China, it empowers China's lean manufacturing capabilities to enable global factories.After the global supply chain is gradually taking shape, it is expected to get more local orders through overseas production capacity to continue to improve the market share in the functional food foundry industry.

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